Otto-harald hirvonen

Sanna Marin stepping down changes nothing.

This image was created with Stable Diffusion AI. I added another image a the end of the article as a bonus!

Sanna Marin declared that she wouldn’t seek another term as the leader of the Social Democrats. [1] This decision sparked a hope for a purple cabinet. [2] From what I gather there are three arguments supporting this notion, none of which I find convincing.

The most popular idea is that the animosity for Marin by the National Coalition is keeping Petteri Orpo from seriously considering an alliance between the two parties. Now when Marin is stepping down from leadership, the Social Democrats can elect a more amicable leader. Granted there were many heated moments between Marin and Orpo during the campaign. [3] Orpo’s rhetoric has a certain quality that uniquely triggers Marin. However, the issues never stemmed from a personal grievance. Orpo has every incentive to keep the Social Democrats at the negotiation table. The more legitimate the threat is of allying with the Social Democrats, the more leverage Orpo has on the Finns party. To throw such an advantage away due to personal issues seems unusually immature of Orpo.

The more pragmatic argument I’ve heard is that a coalition between the Social Democrats and the National Coalition with the help of the Green League and the Swedish People’s Party of Finland is stronger than the bourgeois alternative. The purple cabinet would have 113 seats, which is five seats more than the right-wing alternative would have. [4] Five seats is not a significant difference, which is why this argument is bolstered with the notion that the Finns Party is not as disciplined as the Social Democrats are. Fair enough. The Finns party just recently broke apart during its last stay in Juha Sipiläs cabinet and their voters are more volatile. [5] However, if you roughly divide the purple cabinet into left and right sides you find that the Social Democrats and the Green League control 56 seats and the National Coalition and the SPP control only one seat more. Couple this with the fact that the Swedish People’s Party of Finland is liberal on social issues making this alliance more magenta than purple. The National Coalition ran essentially on an austerity ticket. They do not have enough power to make the Social Democrats give in.

The most interesting argument is that Marin shadows the path of Paavo Lipponen. First, I must admit being conceited since this argument is my continuation from the fascinating point made by Ranne Aunimo. [6] He compared the happenings of Marin to a former prime minister Paavo Lipponen. There in fact are many similarities between Lipponen during the 2003 election and Marin now. Both prime ministers succeeded in strengthening their parties during their terms but failed to win first place. Paavo Lipponen also had quarrels with the first-place winner Anneli Jäätteenmäki. Even though he was the party leader at the time he did not join his peers in Jäätteenmäki’s cabinet, but instead was chosen to be the speaker of the parliament. History could repeat here.

The two couldn’t reconcile their differences giving precedence to think the same might happen with Marin and Orpo. However, I would argue that the Social Democrats had a much more similar platform with the Centre Party then than they have now with the National Coalition. Furthermore, there was a thirteen-seat difference between the second and the third place making the coalition between the Centre Party and the Social Democrats that much more attractive. There truly wasn’t another choice to consider.

Even if there is no rationale for forecasting an alliance between the National Coalition and the Social Democrats, I do hope for it. I think it would be healthy for the nation to clean its own mess together. Come June I’m either correct or I’ll have a cabinet I’m satisfied with. I win either way.

References:

[1]     Lakka, P & Tikkala, H (2023, April 5)  Sanna Marin jättää SDP:n puheenjohtajuuden syyskuun puoluekokouksen jälkeen. Yleisradio. Sanna Marin jättää SDP:n puheenjohtajuuden syyskuun puoluekokouksen jälkeen | Yle Uutiset

[2]    There were several places where I came across this notion. I don’t seem to be alone in feeling this way:

[3]    There are countless of examples, but here are the most notable clashes:

[4]    Keski Heikkilä, A (2023, April 3) Perusporvari­hallitus voi syntyä myĂśs ilman keskustaa – grafiikat näyttävät mahdolliset hallitus­pohjat. Helsingin Sanomat. Sinipuna vai perusporvarit? Grafiikat näyttävät mahdolliset hallituspohjat – Politiikka | HS.fi

[5]    Koivisto, M (2017, June 13) Perussuomalaisten ryhmä hajosi täysin – Timo Soini yli 20 lähtijän joukossa. Yleisradio.  Perussuomalaisten ryhmä hajosi täysin – Timo Soini yli 20 lähtijän joukossa | Yle Uutiset

[6]    Aunimo, R (2023, April 2) SDP teki Sanna Marinin johdolla Paavo Lipposet. Demokraatti. SDP teki Sanna Marinin johdolla Paavo Lipposet | Demokraatti.fi

Here’s the bonus image. Thanks for reading!